Comments on ReadWriteWeb's Predictions for 2008

I'm sitting back catching up on some The Office and wanted to comment on ReadWriteWeb's predictions for 2008.  First, thanks for putting all these predictions together.  This will make for some interesting comparisons in December 2008.

On that note, I've put the authors in order of which ones I agree with most.  I think Alex Iskold is right on with his predictions and think Emre Sokullu will be most wrong:

1. Alex Iskold
2. Richard MacManus
3. Charles Knight
4. Sean Ammirati
5. Josh Catone
6. Marshall Kirkpatrick
7. Emre Sokullu

My favorite:  I agree with everything Alex Iskold projected for 2008, especially implicit assumptions (which I tend to call "automated recommendations"):

• 2008 will be slow and cautious, with the first half dominated by recession or fear of recession.
• Facebook is going to see the same kind of decline in popularity in 2008 that MySpace saw in 2007.
• Digg is going to be acquired by one of the mainstream media conglomerates.
• Implicit applications, which monitor our habits and automatically infer our likes, will rise.

I found the following predictions of Richard MacManus to be interesting and very reasonable:

• Zoho and/or ThinkFree will be acquired by big companies wanting to leapfrog into the Web Office space.
• The most interesting innovations on the Web in 2008 won't happen in Silicon Valley, but in Asia (China, Japan, Korea). At least one startup from China will break through in the US market with Twitter-like success in 2008 - and it will almost certainly be a Mobile Web app.

Charles Knight (who also runs AltSearchEngines) is predicting opportunities for alternate search engines (ie, other than Google).  I agree that there are opportunities here, that the world is big and that success is possible, but think it will be hard to top Google.  They just came along at the right time and it will be hard to topple their Google's $208 billion valuation and $13 billion in cash.  For more on Charles' predictions, visit "Search 2008 A little less talk and a lot more action".

• In the 1st Q 2008, the true "Google Killer" in search will be in Stealth Mode. In 2nd Q 2008 the first prototype will begin in closed Alpha mode. In 3rd Q 2008 it will be ready for the final closed Beta testing. In 4th Q 2008 it will launch and "Rock and Shock" the world!

I mostly agree with Sean Ammirati, but have a minor disagreement about Google looking vulnerable.  Google is indeed a one trick pony, but that's a pony valued at more than $200 billion!

• Google will really start looking vulnerable in 2008. While the 'one trick pony' comment by Steve Ballmer drew sarcastic responses, this will begin to look prophetic.
• Facebook will start to feel pressure from two trends that will emerge on the web: distributed social networks and distributed commerce systems. For distributed commerce systems, look to see a first proof of concept from the VRM project. Chris Messina's diso project with Wordpress will be a great proof of concept for distributed social neworks.

Overall, I tend to disagree with Josh Catone.  Facebook will grow but, in my mind, they are worth no more than $5 billion while Google has more than twice that in cash (and is worth more than $200 billion). I agree that the mobile web will be a bit story, but more so in 2009 and 2010 than 2008.   Finally, I don't get how ABC/CBS/NBC will make people want to use Google Docs.

• Facebook will continue to grow and their platform will be adopted by other large social networks. Google will sweat.
• Mobile web usage will be a big story in 2008. It's already big in many parts of the world; and Westerners are about to get hooked. With new mobile devices that makes web surfing less painful, people will be more and more connected away from their computers.
• Mainstream media coverage will be a catalyst for the adoption of Web Office apps by consumers.

Marshall Kirkpatrick said some very vague things, so it's hard to agree or disagree strongly.

Least favorite - I disagree with everything that Emre Sokullu said.  Facebook is just a social network for college people.  Google is going "social" and OpenSocial is just one tactic in a much broader strategy.  While Microsoft and Facebook might try to acquire startups, don't forget that most companies would prefer to be bought by Google.  Oh, and aggressive is spelled incorrectly.

• Facebook will acquire companies that do the following, in order to strengthen their advertising unit: personalization, behavior tracking, image recognition
• Facebook will release a browser.
• Google OpenSocial will be a failure.
• Microsoft will become more aggresive and buy many popular companies at once.

Comments

[Charles Knight]

Could you elaborate a litle and tell me where you disagree with me? [email protected] that would really add to your post, I think.

Also, I did not mean to imply that we are working on a next-gen 'Google Killer,' I meant to say that we know we are, but cannot discuss all of the details just yet (NDA in effect).

Thanks,

Charles Knight, editor
AltSearchEngines.com

[Mike Reynolds]

@Charles: Thanks for the comment. My only objection was about being a Google killer. While I think surpassing Google in terms of high-quality results is possible, I don't think it's possible to topple Google's $200 billion valuation and $13 billion in cash.

But, yes, I do agree there are opportunities here. Best of luck on whatever you may or may not be working on.

BTW, I recommend that readers of this article should also visit your related article at:
http://altsearchengines.com/2007/12/27/search-2008-a-little-less-talk-and-a-lot-more-action/

[Softwarespice]

i think if semantic use in social networking then it will be good

[MarinaPikap]

Проститутки Ростова http://pikaprostov.com/