Google's Future? GBrowser, GooglePC, Google NetPC and Google ISP

Recent chatter indicates Google may be preparing to launch its own internet browser.  But this might be only the first step in a much more massive Google strategy that could include a GooglePC and Google ISP service.

Concerning the Google Browser, many are giving the title GBrowser to this rumored challenger of Internet Explorer.  The evidence that supports Google's GBrowser efforts are as follows:

• Google has recently hired several key programmers from Microsoft who worked on the Windows operating system
• Google hired key programmers from Sun and BEA Systems
• Google hired Ben Goodger, the genius behind the upstart Firefox browser (which Forbes says is "better than Internet Explorer by leaps and bounds)
• Google has even hired Microsoft programmers working on future operating systems Avalon and Longhorn (updates that are already out-of-date thanks to Google Desktop Search)
• Finally, last year Google registered the domain name GBrowser.com

Introducing the GooglePC at Under $300

GBrowser would make it easier for Google to control both data and applications, bypassing Microsoft entirely.  In fact, it's conceivable that Google could launch its own PC which wouldn't need any Microsoft software.  Here's what the Google PC could look like:

• A low-cost PC running the Linux operating system (saves $100 to $150 versus Microsoft's operating system)
• Features the GBrowser, the much speculated Google Browser
• Email provided by GMail, a current free service offered by Google (no one really needs Outlook)
• Microsoft-compatible applications powered by GBrowser and/or free open source software like GNOME's spreadsheet Gnumeric and word processor Abiword
• DVD support via Intermedia's popular WinDVD program (in fact, just this past week Google and Intermedia announced a partnership; nothing too explicit, but it shows that they are talking and have a relationship)

There are various ways a Google PC could be priced.  On the cheap side, a minimal setup for basic tasks could cost at little as $150 to $300, including monitor.  Thus, Google is not only a threat to Microsoft, but to Dell, HP, Gateway, Sony and other PC manufacturers as well.  Google could subcontract out the actual manufacturing of the GooglePCs.

Finally, one more note, Google already sells enterprise search servers online at their Google Store.  And why is the Google Store selling seemingly silly products like the Google Fast Lane Travel Mug,  Google Classic Infant Rib Hat and Google Icon Stix and Stonz Magnet Game?  A plausible explanation is that they are trying to gain expertise on how to run an online store in order to provide a platform for selling the GooglePC direct to consumers.

Google ISP and The "Free" GooglePC

Just this past Friday, Google inched closer to entering the high speed ISP arena by introducing the Google Web Accelerator.  The Google Web Accelerator promises to speed up the high speed internet browsing experience by taking advantage of Google's massive centralized cache of the internet as well as a small portion of a user's hard drive.  (We tested it and discovered we could surf the net 15% faster.)  Google can use this muscle to forge partnerships with one or more high speed ISPs and could brand the high speed service Google ISP.

So what?  Yahoo already has a high speed ISP partnership with SBC, but that relationship is entirely on paper.  Any Google ISP relationship would leverage the Google Web Accelerator to speed up the browsing experience.

Are you still saying so what?  OK.  Well, it's feasible that Google could give away the GooglePC for "free" in exchange for a fixed term premium high speed internet service contract.  ISPs may be forced to offer and co-promote a Google ISP service in their regions in a similar way that most cable companies need to carry and pay for ESPN.  Furthermore, anytime the Google Web Accelerator is distributed, the Google Toolbar comes along for the ride, increasing Google's reach.

In short, the GooglePC could encapsulate all of the Google features on a PC without needing one cent of Microsoft software.  Google ISP and the Google Web Accelerator would further vertically integrate Google into the internet surfing experience.

Bypassing the PC Route via the Google NetPC (The Un-PC PC)

Finally, some say Google could instead offer a NetPC (a cross between a dummy terminal and a bare bones PC where all data would be stored and served centrally at Google).   Per this example of a NetPC setup, you can see that a NetPC looks like a regular PC except for there is no bulky "big box" that makes lots of noise and produces a lot of heat.  Just plug the "little box" into the internet and you're ready to go.  Almost all files would be stored at Google, although a small local hard drive or flash drive would still exist locally for caching reasons.

One big advantage of NetPC's is that you'd never need to install software since Google would provide everything that most people need (email, browsing, word processing, spreadsheets and perhaps a few other things).  What about games?  If Google launches the Google NetPC, expect game companies like Electronic Arts to build for-fee games directly into the Google NetPC system (housed centrally at Google).

It's worth pointing out that the Google NetPC would be different than any NetPC on the market, since it would have millions of users.  As such, Google could expand the size of the NetPC marketplace, ultimately lowering prices to perhaps $50 to $150 (from current levels of $300 to $500), including keyboard, monitor and mouse.  Of course, Google could offer the Google NetPC for free in exchange for a fixed term Google ISP contract.

If these prices sound optimistic, observe how Apple's iPod has driven down prices of miniature high-capacity hard drives.  Google could do for the PC and NetPC what Apple's iPod did for personal music players.

The Google NetPC also increases the chances of a Google-owned Google ISP.  Google could choose to increase the fiber optic "fat pipe" coming out of its Mountain View headquarters.  By going this route, Google could buy or build their own ISP, making a Google ISP a reality.  Thus, the Google NetPC running GBrowser, the Google Web Accelerator and various other Google tools could exclude the following from the revenue equation:  Microsoft, computer manufacturers and various ISPs.  Ah, the plot thickens!

International Expansion: Google in China and India

The current combined population of China and India is 2.9 billion, compared to 293 million in the US.  Thus, China and India represent 10X the population of the US and both have a rising middle class.  Whoever can get their foot "in the door" in these countries has opportunity to earn massive amounts of revenue.

Which is more likely?  (1) The rising middle classes in China and India will shell out $500 to $1000 for a PC loaded with unnecessary Microsoft software.  Or (2) the rising middle classes in China and India will shell out less than $100 for a NetPC since it does the same things a full-scale PC does.

Google is in a great position to provide a NetPC to both China and India.  At the very least, they'd make a great technology partner for whatever company the governments of China and India favor.  One last time - this could be accomplished without any Microsoft software.  So Google is indeed a huge threat to Bill Gates and Microsoft.

SquirrelNet's Prediction

Look for Google to bring GBrowser to market within 2 years, the GooglePC within 3 years and Google ISP partnerships within 5 years.  For further validation of this theory, consider what Fortune Magazine is saying:

The idea that Google will one day marginalize Microsoft's operating system and bypass Windows applications is already starting to become reality. The most paranoid people at Microsoft even think "Google Office" is inevitable. Google is taking over operating system features too, like desktop search.

Onward mighty Google!

Comments

[Dave]

Oh boy!

[Hashim]

Selling PC's and bulding operating systems and browsers is a mess of its own. Search is still a big problem to solve, and Google will focus its resources there.

[hass]

I, for one, welcome our new Google overlords.

[Vic]

Uh, Google can purchase an ISP like Earthlink and get into the game quite quickly and cheaply.

[not part of the google love fest]

If trading Google for Microsoft excites you this much you are crazy. Anyways, the non-technical masses are more likely to trade in their $1000 dollar pc for an all-in-one entertainment box that does the work of the pc. Look to the next xbox 360, ps3, or other media centers to be the harbinger of doom for the modern pc. This is why Google and Apple look to companies like Tivo as a foot hold in this market. By the time, Google introduces their GooglePC, it will be too late. M$ introduces the 360 this winter. That is your $200 pc in a box.

[quirkyalone]

I agree with you, that it is realistic to expect GBrowser, or even GOffice, which will store all files on google servers.

Regarding GooglePC, however, I think people still use a lot of applications, which can't run from within a Browser and require more than a cheap linux box.

Essentialy, I think Google just wants all your data (browsing and search history, email, text documents, other office-like documents) to reside on their servers. I am not sure they will need GooglePC to achieve that.

[AussieWebmaster]

Intriguing hypothesis.... though I am not much of a conspiracy theorist I definitely think you have woven an interesting story...

It should have started with in a galaxy far, far away....

But if Google becomes Darth Vader it is obvious that he was turned by the Dark Lord, Bill Gates.

[Stoney deGeyter]

I think the GBrowser and ISP are the most likely to see light of day (anytime soon). The netPC is also plausible as well.

[daniel m]

holy, i think this is gona be the second walmart!! lol but sounds good

[Kit]

I've been talking about google taking over the planet for a while. You can check out some of the stuff I've written about:
http://kit.kitkorp.com/archives/000260.php
http://kit.kitkorp.com/archives/000310.php
Mine mostly deal with the text advertisments and the internet economy, but this will make an interesting addition to the collection.

[Matt]

I agree with much of what you say. Sounds to me like Google is trying to become what some many people despise.

I think that is hilarious!

[milk]

so google has hired some devs who know how windows and other os's work. do they not have servers with custom os's to maintain and develop? do they not have aps which interface with the windows filesystem to develop? oh, they've hired the lead dev of firefox? do users not use firefox to access a large range of googles products? i think people are just jumping to conclusions with this crazy rumor mill that's been churning away for several months now.

[The Indian Blogger]

Moving towards the GDesktop.

http://labnol.blogspot.com/2004/10/am-i-moving-towads-gdesktop.html

[Thoughtfire]

All the ideas sound very exciting and sound near realistic hypothesis....but has anyone thought about privacy issues? That isnt addressed here.

Google is such a darling these days that these hypotheses, started by an above average joe, will sound too exciting. One debacle from Google with people's data and all the trust could be bust.

Microsoft has had such a problem with it's passport service that people dont want to submit themselves to it, because of the mindset they have about microsoft.

people who assume I'm pro MS, hold on.....I'm for the one who makes my life easier and safer in this current time. that's it.

[www.bohemianworld.com]

Go Gooooooooogle!!!
Microsoft can not dominate
forever...it is time for change...
it is time for true innovation
(example Apple, now Google ;) to make everyone's lives more interesting,super-knowledgeable, and less stressful. We will see if MS can be an innovator... a "copycat"...or just pass'e.

Three phrases should be among the most common in our daily usage. They are: Thank you, I am grateful and I appreciate.

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[Murray Clarke]

So what are the ISP's and IDC's doing about this in the US?

Without a shadow of doubt Google is going to take the hosting business at some point, SaaS delivery of apps is likely further in the future - does that mean a future take over of Salesforce.com for Appexchange? They already allied with each other.

Microsoft will not die but it is possible they will become the next Sun. Browser based computing will dominate the SMB's, hosted by Google who will be able to control pretty much everything and maintain low pricing due to the Ad vehicle. Amazing and powerful strategy but they can not take 100% of the market.

Which market? PC and tools market for consumer and SMB. Enterprise will need their own on premise HW to a degree.

WTF are the SP's doing about this? Should not everyone be working together to defend their territory/customers from jumping to Google? Should they not be creating their own virtualized desktops, mail, tools, web delivered apps etc?